At a Glance:
- Paul Merson is not optimistic about Arsenal’s season moving forward after Carabao Cup final defeat.
- The Gunners remain alive in three more competitions.
- The pundit has provided his verdict on what he believes Arsenal will ultimately win this season.
Arsenal were beaten in convincing fashion by Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday afternoon, and Paul Merson has since delivered a somewhat damning verdict on Mikel Arteta’s side’s credentials for the rest of the season.
City eased past the Gunners at Wembley Stadium, courtesy of a brace of second-half headers from Nico O’Reilly. While the North London outfit are still nine points clear at the top of the Premier League, into the last eight of the Champions League and the quarter-final of the FA Cup, the result against City will have significantly damaged the morale around London Colney.
Five Arsenal players have withdrawn from their international squads this week, with Arteta clearly taking measures to ensure his players remain in peak physical shape ahead of the run-in. The Gunners need every player to be on top form if they’re to win a historic treble, although Merson isn’t confident that Arteta’s team have the capacity to achieve this anyway.
Paul Merson delivers Arsenal trophy verdict
Prior to the Carabao Cup final, Arsenal had a 5.4% chance of winning the quadruple, according to Scott Willis on X. The data analyst’s model had the Gunners at 27.3% for the treble, and this will now be the target for Arteta.
They face Sporting CP in the quarter-final of the Champions League, before a potential semi-final tie with Barcelona or Atletico. Southampton are the opponents in the FA Cup, a competition the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and City are still vying to win.
Arsenal's odds to win each of the four remaining competitions:
— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) March 19, 2026
Premier League: 91%
League Cup: 57%
FA Cup: 35%
Champions League: 29%
Odds of each trophy haul based on this:
0 – 1.8%
1 – 21.9%
2 – 43.6%
3 – 27.3%
4 – 5.4% pic.twitter.com/1e3DxVJJr8
Arsenal clearly have a genuine reason to believe that they can claim multiple honours this term, although Merson has essentially claimed that they have no chance of doing so. Writing on Sky Sports, the ex-Arsenal forward revealed his belief that the Gunners will win the title, but that’s as far as their trophy celebrations will go.
“It’s a sore one for Arsenal,” he said, on the Carabao Cup final.
“It’s a confidence-sapping defeat because you come into the dressing room after that and think: oh my God, we just got destroyed in the second half.
“Will it impact the Premier League? Arsenal are too good for the other teams they have to play against in the run-in, so they will beat those teams.
“But watching that game and that second half, I don’t see Arsenal winning anything else but the Premier League.
“Man City are still in the FA Cup. Watching that game, you’d be shocked if Arsenal went back to Wembley and beat them.
“And then in the Champions League, I look at Barcelona – who Arsenal are on course to play in the semi-finals – and Arsenal haven’t got the pace to trouble Barcelona’s high line.
“The forward players aren’t electric – they’re not like Anthony Elanga or Anthony Gordon who caused Barcelona problems in the last 16.
“I’d dread to think what Barcelona could do to Arsenal.”
Arsenal have no reason to be as pessimistic as Paul Merson
Arsenal had an off day at Wembley. They didn’t look like scoring, while they gave up two huge chances, both of which City took.
To project forward from this single football match and completely write Arsenal off from beating any top teams they could face moving forward is a bit reactionary. They’ll have to play significantly better than they did at Wembley, but they are certainly capable of doing so.
| Fixture round | First leg | Second leg |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter-final | 7/8 April | 14/15 April |
| Semi-final | 28/29 April | 5/6 May |
| Final | 30 May | – |
Arteta’s team also certainly have the tools to hurt Barcelona. Gabriel Martinelli boasts electric pace and is more potent in the final third than someone like Anthony Elanga. The North Londoners are generally excellent at exploiting space when teams afford it to them, with their struggles largely coming when their opponents sit deep.
Meanwhile, Arsenal won’t ‘dread’ facing a single attack in world football. The Gunners have proven themselves to be the best defensive team on the planet, and while Barcelona have some unique attacking talent, Arteta’s side have the ability to negate it.
