After beating Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League on Tuesday night, Arsenal’s audacious pursuit of an unprecedented quadruple remains intact.
The Gunners are currently preparing for the Carabao Cup final, which takes place at Wembley on Sunday afternoon, as Mikel Arteta’s side look to get their hands on their first piece of silverware since their 2020 FA Cup triumph. Meanwhile, a European quarter-final tie against Sporting CP awaits the North Londoners, while they will travel to Southampton in the last eight of the FA Cup after the international break.
In the Premier League, Arsenal sit nine points clear of second-placed City, who do have a game in hand. On paper, winning all four trophies seems plausible, but the chances of actually pulling it off – something no English club has ever achieved – remain slim.
Supercomputer reveals Arsenal’s quadruple chances
On an individual basis, Arsenal are favourites to win every remaining match they play across all competitions. However, holistically, the chances of this actually materialising are small.
The congested nature of the fixture schedule and injury issues likely mean the Gunners will slip up somewhere, and the dream of winning four trophies will be quelled. While Thomas Tuchel has taken measures to protect Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka from injury over the international break, many other members of Arsenal’s squad are at risk of severe fatigue and ultimately, burnout.
Arsenal data analyst Scott Willis (@scottjwillis on X) has quantified Arsenal’s chances of winning each competition. Using his statistical model, his supercomputer has created odds on each of the potential outcomes for the Gunners.
Arsenal are huge favourites to win the Premier League, with Willis’ model currently placing their chances of finishing top at 91%. Meanwhile, their chances of beating City in the Carabao Cup final are currently rated at 57%, while they’re at 35% for the FA Cup and 29% for the Champions League.
Using these probabilities, it’s estimated that Arsenal have just a 1.8% chance of winning no silverware this term. They have a 21.9% chance of claiming at least one major honour, while they have a 43.6% chance of doing a double of some kind.
The chances of a treble are currently rated at 27.3%, and finally, Arsenal have just a 5.4% chance of actually pulling off this remarkable quadruple.
Arsenal's odds to win each of the four remaining competitions:
— Scott Willis (@scottjwillis) March 19, 2026
Premier League: 91%
League Cup: 57%
FA Cup: 35%
Champions League: 29%
Odds of each trophy haul based on this:
0 – 1.8%
1 – 21.9%
2 – 43.6%
3 – 27.3%
4 – 5.4% pic.twitter.com/1e3DxVJJr8
Quadruple chances show just how good a job Mikel Arteta is doing
To be in mid-March and to have a 98.2% chance of winning at least one trophy this season is seriously impressive. To have a 43.6% chance of claiming a double at this stage of the campaign is remarkable.
To have even a 5.4% chance of winning a quadruple already is simply astonishing. Arteta deserves huge plaudits for managing all four of these competitions across the season. No other English club is still in the hunt for a quadruple, and this reflects extremely positively on the job the Spaniard is doing.
While everyone else is faltering and struggling to deal with the congested schedule, Arsenal continue to motor on and win games at an unprecedented rate. When all is said and done, these feats will be recognised for how impressive they are, rather than the Gunners being constantly berated for their style of play.
