Arsenal face Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League round of 16 on Wednesday night, with Mikel Arteta hoping it marks the start of a long run to the final in Budapest in May.
The Gunners were given a favourable draw for the knockout stage of Europe’s elite competition after finishing top of the table in the League Phase. Arteta’s men became the first side in the new format’s history to win all eight games, beating the likes of Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and Atletico Madrid in the process.
A quarter-final tie with either Sporting or Bodo/Glimt is the reward for overcoming Leverkusen, before a potential semi-final with Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Atletico, or Barcelona awaits. Micah Richards believes Arsenal are the favourites to go all the way, and the new supercomputer projections validate the pundit’s take.
Supercomputer reveals Arsenal’s Champions League chances
Arsenal are overwhelming favourites in their round of 16 tie against Bayer Leverkusen. Having strolled to eight victories in the league phase, Leverkusen aren’t likely to knock the Premier League leaders out of Europe.
Die Werkself may have comfortably dealt with Olympiacos in their play-off match to set up this tie against the North Londoners, but they’ve endured something of a difficult season domestically. Currently sat sixth in the Bundesliga, Kasper Hjulmand’s outfit are three points off a Champions League place, despite being favoured to finish the campaign in second at the beginning of the year.
Given Leverkusen also have to play Bayern Munich in between the two legs against Arsenal, it’s not surprising that Opta’s supercomputer projections have the Gunners at 86.7% to progress.
Arteta’s team are also heavy favourites to overcome either Sporting or Bodo/Glimt at the quarter-final stage. Opta have the Gunners’ chances of reaching the semi-finals at 56.4%, while they’re also projected to have a 43% chance of reaching the final – the North London club’s fanbase certainly would’ve taken this at the start of the season.
Finally, Arsenal’s overall chances of winning the competition are currently rated at 26.7%. Bayern are the only team that come remotely close to this, with a 16.4% chance of claiming the trophy.
The UEFA Champions League round of 16 kicks off this week, with the eight first-leg matches taking place over Tuesday and Wednesday, before the teams meet again in the second leg next week.
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) March 9, 2026
The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work, assigning win probabilities to every match… pic.twitter.com/HimIk6IHlF
Can Arsenal win the quadruple?
These aren’t the only projections that have emerged this week which will excite Gunners fans. Opta also rate Arsenal’s Premier League title chances at 92.94% following their win over Brighton in midweek.
The North Londoners are in an extraordinary position in both competitions, where they find themselves as overwhelming favourites to go on and claim major honours. With a League Cup final against Manchester City to come, and a spot in the FA Cup last eight secured, talk of an unprecedented quadruple is starting to become serious.
The quadruple dream is well and truly alive for Arsenal 🤩🏆 pic.twitter.com/T1W35AYyBf
— LiveScore (@livescore) March 7, 2026
Arteta has the squad depth to endure four competitions until the very end, while his team have the defensive resilience to nullify any team on the planet. They certainly have the capacity to win all four trophies.
That said, in reality, the remarkable feat is still somewhat unlikely. Injuries, fixture congestion and fatigue are likely to play a huge part, and they could easily stumble in a handful of winnable fixtures that see them miss out on at least one of these available honours.
