Arsenal narrowly beat Brighton & Hove Albion at the Amex on Wednesday night in the Premier League – a result that had a significant impact on Mikel Arteta’s side’s title chances.
Bukayo Saka’s deflected early effort was enough to see off the Seagulls, and while the win certainly wasn’t pretty, the night turned out to be hugely positive for the Gunners. Manchester City failed to beat Nottingham Forest at the Etihad, with Elliot Anderson’s wonder strike salvaging a point for Vitor Pereira’s side.
The North Londoners subsequently sit seven points ahead of the Citizens, albeit Pep Guardiola’s still have a game in hand. Regardless, it felt like a significant moment in the context of the title race, and Opta Analyst’s projections reflect that.
Supercomputer reveals Arsenal title projection
Arsenal are being criticised for their style of play across the media landscape, although Arteta won’t be overly bothered by this noise. The Spaniard is close to leading Arsenal to their first league title in over 20 years, and Wednesday’s events have moved them significantly closer to achieving this feat.
After dropping points at Wolves a couple of weeks ago, the probability of the Gunners going on to win the Premier League dropped to around 65%, according to many different statistical models. However, after winning three games in a row, their chances have improved drastically.
Opta Analyst revealed after Wednesday night’s matches at the Amex and the Etihad, that Arsenal now have a 92.94% chance of winning this piece of silverware that has eluded them since 2004. City’s chances shrank to 7.05%, with the Gunners now firmly in control of their own destiny.
The Opta supercomputer's Premier League title projections after tonight's games:
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) March 4, 2026
Arsenal – 92.94%
Man City – 7.05%https://t.co/7aqZAb0bnS
These projections will be music to the ears of an anxious Arsenal fanbase, who are desperately seeking as much reassurance as possible in the midst of an agonising run-in.
Are Opta Analyst’s title projections accurate?
It’s clear that Arsenal are now overwhelming favourites to lift the title. Even if Arteta’s team were to suffer defeat in the showdown at the Etihad in April, and City were to win all of their other games, they would still triumph with wins in their other seven matches.
If City slip up even once in the remainder of the season, then the Gunners have leeway to drop points in up to three matches. Arteta’s outfit are in an incredibly strong position.
That said, Opta’s projection of 93% feels somewhat steep. This figure almost suggests it’s essentially a foregone conclusion that the Gunners will come out on top, when it certainly isn’t.
City need just one set of results to go their way to reignite their hopes, and given how nervous Arsenal have looked at points, the psychological impact is almost certainly relevant – even if Opta’s model doesn’t take it into account.
