Arsenal’s Champions League knockout campaign commences on Wednesday night, as Mikel Arteta’s side travel to Germany to face Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16.
The Gunners were handed a favourable draw, pitted against the side sat sixth in the Bundesliga, with a tie against Bodo/Glimt or Sporting awaiting in the quarter-finals. Opta’s supercomputer estimates Arsenal’s chances of winning the entire competition are currently at 26.7%, making them overwhelming favourites, and thus, the pressure is on Arteta and his team to deliver.
Having rotated heavily away at Mansfield on Saturday afternoon, the North London outfit should be fresh for their visit to Western Germany. As for Arsenal’s history with Leverkusen, this will be just the third ever meeting between the two sides, with the last clash coming back in 2002.
| Date | Result | Competition |
| 27/02/2002 | Arsenal 4-1 Bayer Leverkusen | Champions League |
| 19/02/2002 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal | Champions League |
Confirmed Arsenal XI vs Bayer Leverkusen
Several key players were given the weekend off by Arteta, and thus, the divisive head coach was always likely to revert to what seems to be his favoured starting eleven at the present moment.
David Raya comes back in for Kepa Arrizabalaga, while Jurrien Timber and Gabriel Magalhaes continue to be guaranteed starters in the Gunners’ back four. Saliba has indeed been passed fit and he’ll partner the latter at the heart of the defence, with Cristhian Mosquera waiting in standby if needed. Piero Hincapie completes the backline and starts against his parent club.
In midfield, Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice have returned to the team after being rested for the Mansfield encounter. The pair have looked fatigued in recent matches, but a weekend away from the action should’ve done them the world of good. With Odegaard likely out, Eberechi Eze has retained his spot ahead of the double pivot.
In the forward line, Viktor Gyokeres and Bukayo Saka are back in the starting line-up after being rested on Saturday. Off the left, with Trossard’s fitness still an issue, Gabriel Martinelli is in.
Confirmed Arsenal XI vs Leverkusen: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Zubimendi, Rice, Eze; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction
Opta’s odds have Arsenal as 86% favourites for this tie, although it may not be won in the first leg. The Gunners are leggy at the moment, and a trip to the continent isn’t exactly what they need in the midst of this gruelling schedule.
The UEFA Champions League round of 16 kicks off this week, with the eight first-leg matches taking place over Tuesday and Wednesday, before the teams meet again in the second leg next week.
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) March 9, 2026
The Opta supercomputer has been hard at work, assigning win probabilities to every match… pic.twitter.com/HimIk6IHlF
That said, looking at Leverkusen’s form, it’s hard to envisage anything but an away win. Kasper Hjulmand’s outfit have won just one of their last five matches in all competitions – a 1-0 win away at Hamburg. To add insult to injury for die Werkself, they host Bayern Munich in between the two legs and will need to have one eye on that pivotal domestic clash.
Leverkusen’s underlying numbers indicate that they are an effective defensive team, but lack attacking threat. Thus, it’s not likely to be a thriller at the BayArena, although Arsenal should be able to nullify their opponents.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Arsenal
