Arsenal sit just five points clear of Manchester City heading into their final ten Premier League fixtures, and the title race is subsequently almost certain to go down to the wire.
Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand over the Gunners, while both teams remain in the Champions League and both domestic cup competitions. While the Citizens have an additional match to accumulate points in, the Manchester club arguably have a more difficult set of opponents left to play.
City face tough trips to Chelsea, Bournemouth and Leeds, while Brentford and Aston Villa still have to visit the Etihad. For Arsenal, Sunday’s clash with Chelsea will represent one of Arteta’s outfit’s last games against a side competing near the top of the table.
After the visit of Liam Rosenior’s men, the fixture list becomes significantly more appealing to the Gunners faithful. Here’s a look at Arsenal’s ten remaining fixtures, how they rank in terms of difficulty (from easiest to hardest) and where they fall in the schedule.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 46 | 19.3 | 0.95 |
10 – Burnley (H) – 17th May
Arsenal’s penultimate league fixture and final home game is almost certainly their easiest left to play, and this could suit Arteta’s team. The Gunners may be in a position where they need to claim all three points to ensure they head into the final day with an advantage, and Burnley at home is an ideal occasion for this.
The Clarets currently sit eight points from safety, and given they have the worst expected goals difference in the league, are fairly likely to already find themselves relegated by the time they make the trip to N5. This means Scott Parker’s side won’t have much to play for, and the North Londoners should be capable of strolling to victory.
Having said all that, Arsenal showed against Wolves that they can make any game look difficult.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 20 | Burnley | 27 | 21.2 | 49.4 | -1.04 |
9 – Fulham (H) – 2nd May
If Arsenal reach the semi-finals of the Champions League, this fixture will be sandwiched between both legs, certainly complicating the encounter at the Emirates.
That said, Fulham are currently tenth and will likely be in a position where a win does very little for them with just three matches left to play after this. They aren’t going to be relegated and they’re not likely to qualify for Europe.
In fact, the Cottagers are slightly over-performing based on their underlying metrics, making this a more palatable fixture than it may seem. It’s another handy game for Arteta to have in the midst of a gruelling run-in.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 13 | Fulham | 27 | 30.7 | 36.3 | -0.21 |
8 – Everton (H) – 15th March
Similarly to Fulham, Everton are languishing in mid-table and have underwhelming numbers beneath the surface. The two sides are currently level on points and are just one goal apart on goal difference.
While there is very little to differentiate between the two fixtures, the date is what makes the Everton clash trickier. The Toffees will still have eight matches left after they play at the Emirates, and thus, are unlikely to be on the beach at this point as they chase down a Europa Conference League spot.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 15 | Everton | 27 | 29.7 | 37 | -0.27 |
7 – Crystal Palace (A) – 24th May
Crystal Palace were performing at a level that indicated that they could compete for a Champions League spot before things unravelled behind the scenes at Selhurst Park. Two months of dire form and turbulence off the field have derailed their season, and they’re already in a position where they have little left to play for domestically.
Back in November, visiting South London on the final day looked like a difficult prospect. Now, with the Palace fans seemingly no longer even fond of Oliver Glasner, there isn’t likely to be a push from those within Selhurst Park to give him a good send-off.
To add to all this, the Europa Conference League final takes place just days after this match, and the Eagles will have aspirations of reaching that stage of the competition.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 7 | Palace | 27 | 39.1 | 31.8 | 0.27 |
6 – West Ham (A) – 9th May
On paper, West Ham United are one of the weakest sides in the Premier League, despite their recent resurgence. However, they’ve put themselves in a position where every single match is a cup final between now and the end of the season, including their encounter with Arsenal at the London Stadium in May.
This will be West Ham’s penultimate home game of the season, while it could also be days after a Champions League semi-final second leg for Arsenal. It’ll be crucial for both teams, making it significantly more difficult for the Gunners than a trip to East London usually would be.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 17 | West Ham | 27 | 29.4 | 39.8 | -0.39 |
5 – Bournemouth (H) – 11th April
While Bournemouth could find themselves in a similar boat to Everton and Fulham in not having much to play for, they’re less likely to. The Cherries boast much more impressive underlying metrics and will be targeting a European place.
They currently sit just two points behind Brentford in seventh, and their game against Arsenal is just weeks ago. Andoni Iraola’s team will still be in the hunt for Europe, and have troubled the Gunners in the past.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 27 | 38.9 | 38.3 | 0.02 |
4 – Brighton (A) – 4th March
Arsenal visit Brighton next week, and although the Seagulls are currently 14th, they sit just six points off seventh. Fabian Hurzeler’s team will still believe that they can finish in the European places, and they have every right to based on their steady metrics.
This game also falls days after Arteta’s team host Chelsea, so fatigue could come into play. Brighton’s high-octane style disrupted Arsenal last season, with the Gunners failing to beat the Sussex club in either of the two league fixtures.
In an intense game with a title on the line, this will be a legitimately tough test for the league leaders.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 9 | Brighton | 27 | 36.7 | 34.2 | 0.09 |
3 – Newcastle (H) – 25th April
Newcastle may have somewhat underwhelmed in the league, but their expected goals difference remains one of the best in the division. Eddie Howe’s side have come to the Emirates previously and set up to frustrate Arsenal, and they can almost certainly do this again in the run-in.
What makes this fixture potentially even more difficult is the date it could be rearranged for. If either the Magpies or the Gunners reach the FA Cup semi-final, which looks reasonably likely, then this clash will be moved forward to the midweek after Arsenal play at the Etihad.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 27 | 37.1 | 29.6 | 0.29 |
2 – Chelsea (H) – 1st March
Having played Chelsea three times already this season, Arsenal will be glad to get this fixture out of the way on Sunday. While the Gunners have largely got the better of their West London counterparts, the games between the two teams have been close, and this upcoming clash isn’t likely to be any different.
Rosenior’s outfit have struggled defensively since he was appointed, but have looked potent as an attacking threat. They’re likely to cause Arsenal issues, and it’ll be up to Arteta to set his team up to outmuscle them offensively.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 27 | 46.7 | 36.6 | 0.37 |
1 – Manchester City (A) – 18th April
Everything could rest on the game at the Etihad on 18th April. The Gunners will have played three of their five hardest remaining fixtures before the title showdown, while they’ll have four of their five remaining easiest games left.
Thus, if they can emerge from Manchester with their lead still intact, then they’ll be in an extremely strong position.
However, City are the best team in the Premier League not named Arsenal, based on any metric you look at. Guardiola’s side have the ability to beat the Gunners on their day, so this will be an incredibly stern test for Arteta’s group.
| Position in xG table | Team | Pld | NPxGF | NPxGA | NPxGD/90 |
| 2 | City | 27 | 46.3 | 28.8 | 0.65 |
