The Premier League title race is hotting up after Arsenal lost away at Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, and Mikel Arteta’s team now face a potentially daunting scenario that could determine their legacy in N5.
The Gunners were beaten by City at the Etihad, courtesy of a stunning strike from Rayan Cherki and a poacher’s finish from Erling Haaland, cancelling out Kai Havertz’s bizarre equaliser. While Arteta’s side were impressive at times in the title showdown, they ultimately emerged from Manchester with nothing to show for it, barring a significantly dented grip on the Premier League trophy.
City now sit just three points behind Arsenal with a game in hand, meaning the title is technically in neither of their hands. This opens up the opportunity for the cruelty of goal difference to decide who takes home this illustrious piece of silverware.
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How goal difference can come into effect in Premier League title race
Arsenal currently sit top of the pile on 70 points, three clear of City on 67 points. The Gunners have played 33 matches, while the Citizens have played just 32.
| Rank | Team | Pts | Pld | GD |
| 1 | Arsenal | 70 | 33 | +37 |
| 2 | Man City | 67 | 32 | +36 |
Thus, if both teams win all of their remaining fixtures, then they will finish on the same number of points, and the title will be decided on goal difference. Furthermore, if City win their game in hand and then the two teams match each other’s results across the board, then the same scenario will unfold.
Given that both teams have relatively winnable schedules, this outcome is certainly plausible, even if not likely. There is therefore a genuine chance that the title is decided by an agonisingly small margin, and both teams will have to take this into account when thinking about their approach heading into the run-in, with a more offensive style the more advisable strategy.
It could literally come down to the final day, with both teams needing to push forward to score more to get ahead. While this scenario would make for an enthralling watch for the neutral, it will be heart-attack-inducing for Arsenal and City supporters.
Goal difference may actually suit Arsenal given the set of fixutres
The gap in goal difference right now is just one, so the Gunners have a somewhat negligible advantage on this front.
On paper, City’s more potent attack makes the prospect of the title being decided on goal difference more palatable for them. Guardiola’s team have scored two more goals than Arsenal, whilst they’ve generated significantly more expected goals throughout the campaign.
However, the opposite might actually be true, largely due to their fixtures. Arsenal have games against sides who are either relegation candidates or have very little to play for.
Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace all await the Gunners, none of whom are in the relegation battle or are competing for a place in Europe. Meanwhile, Arteta’s side’s other matches are against West Ham and Burnley, with the former embroiled in an intense relegation battle and the latter almost certain to be relegated by the time they meet the North Londoners.
Therefore, four of Arsenal’s five matches are against teams who have little to play for, and they therefore have more of an opportunity to run up heavy scorelines.
Meanwhile, four of City’s six games are against teams desperately competing for European spots. Everton, Bournemouth, Brentford and Aston Villa await the Citizens, all of whom are unlikely to allow Guardiola’s men to score several goals as they’ll be fiercely competitive.
Man City historically end the season with big goal differences
Historically, it doesn’t look good for Arsenal. Across the last five Premier League seasons, the Citizens have averaged a goal difference of +12 in their last six matches of the campaign.
When the heat is on, and they need to beat teams convincingly, City routinely deliver. Whether or not the current iteration of Guardiola’s side can replicate this remains to be seen, but given the plethora of firepower at the Spaniard’s disposal, they likely can.
| Man City GD in last six Premier League Games | |
| Season | GD |
| 2024/25 | +11 |
| 2023/24 | +18 |
| 2022/23 | +7 |
| 2021/22 | +18 |
| 2020/21 | +6 |
| Average | +12 |
What makes these numbers more daunting for Arsenal is that their goal differences in 2023/24 and 2020/21 are weighed down by some bad results right at the end of the campaign when the title was already wrapped up. Taking these two seasons out, the average goes up to +15.7.
If City replicate this this term, then they’ll finish the campaign on a +52 goal difference. Given how meek Arsenal’s attack has been of late, it’s difficult to envisage Arsenal scoring 15 goals in their last five games, let alone adding 15 to their goal difference.
Arteta will have to hope that his team either clicks into gear in the attack or City can’t live up to their previous versions of themselves.
