Wednesday night was a major turning point in the 2025/26 Premier League title race. Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal side ground out a narrow 1-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion while their nearest challengers in Manchester City were held to a 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest.
Bukayo Saka opened and closed the scoring on Wednesday in what was a far from routine night at the office – but all that mattered was picking up three points and travelling back to the north of the capital.
Elsewhere, City’s share of the spoils with Forest only increases Arsenal’s chances of producing a season to remember. With that in mind and the 2025/26 campaign entering its crucial final stretch, how many points will it take for Arsenal to be crowned champions?
Arsenal – as things stand – are seven points clear at the top of the Premier League
Arne Slot’s Liverpool managed to do so with four matches to spare last time out – but, again, when is the earliest that Arteta can become the first Arsenal manager since the legendary Arsene Wenger to win the Premier League title?
Now, a quick look at the current standings proves that it is Arsenal’s to lose.
Arteta’s side – who have now won three straight matches in the Premier League – are seven points clear at the top of the table but City, who have plenty of experiencing of winning the English top flight, do have a game in hand.
For now, though, Arsenal are firmly in the driving seat and they’ll be looking ahead to their next league match against Everton, all while navigating their involvement in other competitions.
Of course, following the recent results, City are reliant on Arsenal dropping points between now (March 5) and the end of the campaign.
When can Arsenal win the 2025/26 Premier League title?
In what would be an impressive feat, in the event that Arsenal win all of their remaining Premier League fixtures – including their top-of-the-table clash against City at the Etihad on April 19 – they can be crowned champions on May 9 with a win over West Ham.
That would remain the case even if Guardiola’s men also dropped zero points between now and then; that’s because they’d remain 10 points behind the Gunners.
Should the Citizens – the only team in Premier League history to win four titles on the bounce – drop points in matches before that juncture (against West Ham, Chelsea, Burnley or Everton) and Arsenal continue to win, the title could be decided at an even earlier date.
Read More: Martin Keown singles out ‘nervy’ Arsenal star despite 1-0 win over Brighton
City’s share of the spoils with Forest means they are no longer in control of their destiny and Arsenal will earn the status of champions if they win all of their matches.
If Arsenal were to win against City on away soil, it would take a further 15 points – equating to five wins – in their other seven matches to reign victorious as the winners of England’s top tier.
| Date | Opponent (H/A) | Result of reverse fixture |
| 14/03 | Everton (H) | Everton 0-1 Arsenal |
| 11/04 | Bournemouth (H) | Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal |
| 19/04 | Manchester City (A) | Arsenal 1-1 Man City |
| 25/04 | Newcastle United (H) | Newcastle Utd 1-2 Arsenal |
| 02/05 | Fulham (H) | Fulham 0-1 Arsenal |
| 09/05 | West Ham United (A) | Arsenal 2-0 West Ham |
| 17/05 | Burnley (H) | Burnley 0-2 Arsenal |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace (A) | Arsenal 1-0 Crystal Palace |
A draw against their title rivals, though, would require them to take 18 points from their other seven matches to win the lot. That’s, however, only the case if City do not drop any further points.
In short, City will need to lose two games (including their mouthwatering encounter against Arsenal) and drop points in another for Arsenal to be crowned champions in April rather than the final month of the campaign.
Arteta will be looking to write his name in the history books
It’s been a season in the making for 22 years now: Arsenal lasted tasted league success, under Wenger, in the 2003/04 campaign and Arteta, who replaced Unai Emery in late 2019, will be looking to join the likes of Wenger, George Graham and Herbert Chapman in the pantheon of great Arsenal managers.
The data-driven folk at Opta have now given the Gunners a 93.6% chance of running away with the title with their Supercomputer offering only Man City (outside of Arsenal) any sort of hope.
Guardiola’s men have been given odds of 6.4% chance of winning the title come May – but it is currently in the firm grasp of Arteta and Co.
Although many, Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler included, have qualms over the current Arsenal side and their ways, what cannot be frowned upon is the fact they are still competing on all four fronts. Should Arteta pick up a trophy or two, they would be no doubting his influence.
