Arsene Wenger: The fallout if he was sacked
- Michael Oliver
- @MichaelOIiver
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After Arsenal’s embarrassing Carabao Cup final display against Manchester City last weekend, many were expecting a bit of a response from the Gunners last night as they welcomed the same City side to the Emirates.
However, Pep Guardiola’s side were able to step it up a gear again and proved in the first half why they’re the Premier League champions-elect, cruising to a 3-0 lead early on before comfortably seeing out the rest of the game.
Losing to the best team in the league is one thing, but losing Brighton is another and that’s exactly what the Gunners did today.
Those in away end at the Amex believe Wenger has overstayed his welcome at the club and there is a sense that this could be his last season at the club, should he even see out the final few months.
We take a look at the potential fall out from Wenger being sacked in the summer, who could replace him, who the next manager could recruit and what that means for Arsenal.
Let's start with the obvious
In this case study, we assume that the Arsenal hierarchy have had enough of Arsenal’s slip from perennial contender to mediocrity in recent seasons and see Arsene Wenger packing midway through the two-year contract he signed after last season. Now the search begins for his replacement.
Thomas Tuchel as the next Arsenal manager?
Let’s look at the facts.
Thomas Tuchel enjoyed a great two-year spell with Borussia Dortmund between 2015-17, winning the German Cup in his final season with the club before resigning.
Eager to get back into management next season, Tuchel has top club pedigree with a reputation of playing the expansive passing football that Arsenal fans have enjoyed greatly under Wenger, centring his side around those technical players such as Mesut Ozil.
A reunion with Arsenal's new Head of Scouting, Sven Mislintat
During his stint at Dortmund, Tuchel worked closely with Sven Mislintat, the Chief Scout at the club, when it came to player recruitment.
Mislintat spent over a decade working for Dortmund in their scouting department and has an incredible track record of unearthing talent, helping identify the likes of Robert Lewandowski and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Now adopting a similar role at Arsenal, Mislintat can work closely again with Tuchel and the pair will have an understanding of the kind of players they’d need to recruit to fit the Tuchel system, having spent two years doing so relatively recently.
A new lease of life for Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan
Two of Arsenal’s most influential players are striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, both of whom played together under Tuchel at Dortmund.
Aubameyang has struggled since arriving at Arsenal but under Tuchel he was one of Europe’s deadliest strikers, netting 79 goals and providing 17 assists in his two seasons playing for the German.
The same can be said for Mkhitaryan who hasn’t adapted as well life in the Premier League as he’d like to since joining Manchester United at the start of last season.
It was the one year under Tuchel that put Mkhitaryan on the map, scoring 23 goals and providing 32 assists in 52 appearances in the 2015/16 seasons, a truly remarkable return for the Armenian, who is another gem that was unearthed by Mislintat.
A change in tactics?
Arsene’s tactics, especially in big games, have been criticised heavily in recent years but would Tuchel adopt a different approach?
Yes, is the simple answer.
Tuchel would often chop and change his formation between a 4-1-4-1, 4-2-3-1 or a 3-4-1-2 formation during his time at Dortmund, and it’s that versatility with his personnel each week which allowed him to adapt his playing style to best take down the opposition which made him such a success.
Who'd be on the chopping block under Tuchel?
Tuchel and Mislintat will work together to bring in players who fit their philosophy, but as part of that, players will need to make way.
With Arsenal spending roughly £110m on two new strikers in the last two transfer windows, Danny Welbeck’s days at the club are surely number and perhaps he should’ve followed Olivier Giroud out of the club in January.
Given their German/Bundesliga links, both Granit Xhaka and Shkodran Mustafi could be handed second chances by Tuchel despite failing to impress since arriving at the club 18 months ago.
Goalkeeper Petr Cech is advancing in his years and isn’t strong enough on the ball to play out the back how Tuchel would like his goalkeeper to do.
Calum Chambers, Mohamed Elneny and Sead Kolasinac could all also be on the chopping block.
Tuchel recruits?
Pivotal to Tuchel’s success was the midfield metronome who would sit in the heart of the pitch and dictate the tempo of the play.
The man handed this responsibility at Dortmund was Julian Weigl, and the young German was handed his big break in the first-team by Tuchel.
An eloquent passer but also not afraid to get stuck into the nitty-gritty of midfield play, Weigl would give Arsenal the ideal midfield anchor for the next decade.
Improving that defence is an absolute must for Arsenal and a versatile player like Borussia Monchengladbach’s Matthias Ginter could be an astute purchase.
A regular in the Dortmund defence, making 82 appearances under Tuchel spread between centre-back, right-back and holding midfield, Ginter at 24 still has the potential to grow and improve.
Alternatives to Tuchel? How about Conte?
Chelsea were in a state of crisis entering last season following their dismal 10th place finish in 2015/16 and appointed Conte to come and sort things out.
The no-nonsense Italian won the Premier League in his debut season at the club and sure, his second campaign isn’t going as well and he may have an abrasive character, but Arsenal need something like that.
Comments have been made that perhaps Wenger is too soft and isn’t harsh enough on his players, which is the complete antithesis of Conte. He would dig out every player in his squad if he felt it was required and some of these Arsenal players need a dressing down and need to hear some home truths.
A serial winner wherever he’s been whilst managing at club level, Conte can handle big egos, big personalities and has the character and enthusiasm needed to reinvigorate a rather dull Arsenal right now.
System change?
While Arsenal have dabbled with a back three formation in the last year or so, it’s exclusively Conte’s go-to tactic.
It enjoyed a great deal of success last season and has now been adopted across the Premier League by a number of clubs.
Some complain that Conte may take a bit of a defensive approach but it’s hard to argue with his results and I’m sure Arsenal fans would’ve preferred their side to be structurally sound at the back in their last two games.
A 3-4-3 is likely to be introduced if Conte comes in, with Ozil and Mikhitaryan playing as inside forwards alongside Aubameyang in attack.
New signings for the new system?
If Arsenal make the move to a 3-4-3 then they need to find some new talent that fits the system.
With question marks at both wing-back positions, Arsenal need some competition for both Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac and Conte has been chasing Roma and Italy star Alessandro Florenzi during his time at Chelsea. Trained in central midfield, Florenzi has been transformed into a full-time right-back in recent seasons.
A key part of Chelsea’s title-winning midfield was having two midfield sitters in the form of Nemanja Matic and N’Golo Kante and Arsenal currently don’t have players who come close to this mould.
In need of doubling down in this area, the Gunners could do a lot worse than targeting Sevilla’s Steven N’Zonzi, who has been linked with Arsenal, and Porto’s Danilo Pereira who was a key part of their Euro 2016 winning squad.
Who will make way?
Conte would overhaul this under-performing Arsenal squad should he come in and any number of sales could be made.
If he signs his preferred targets, there wouldn’t be a place in the side for Mohamed Elneny or Granit Xhaka, while both Alex Iwobi and Jack Wilshere could be starved of regular match action.
Carlo Ancelotti as a third option
If Arsenal want to replace Wenger with another titanic figure in the game then there aren’t many better available that Carlo Ancelotti.
The former Premier League winner has won domestic titles in England, Spain, Germany and Italy throughout his storied managerial career as well as the Champions League.
Sacked by Bayern earlier this season, Ancelotti is said to be keen on a return to English football and Arsenal could be the perfect match.
How could Arsenal shape-up under Carlo?
During his spell with Bayern, Ancelotti’s sides were exclusively 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 outfits, perhaps even a combination of the two most weeks.
Usually featuring one sitter deep in midfield with two wingers who stay wide and come inside as the play develops, Ancelotti’s system does marry up well with the talent he would have at his disposal at Arsenal.
Signings who can make a difference
Yes, he’s 34, but Arjen Robben still has a lot to offer at the top level.
Having spent the best part of a decade at Bayern, Robben is set to become a free agent this summer but a return of five goals and 10 assists in 26 appearances does suggest he has something left in the tank.
Not a long-term fix, but as we saw with Manchester United’s signing of Zlatan Ibrahimovic last season, the signing of a world-class veteran on a one-year deal can help bridge the gap in the short-term.
Arsenal need to improve the spine of the side and Bayern’s Javi Martinez and Niklas Sule, who have made just 15 and 14 Bundesliga starts respectively, would add some much-needed steel in that spine.