Arsenal could face an awkward test if the Burnley who beat Watford on Monday night turn up again – a really stubborn side who nullified Watford’s swashbuckling attack and dominated set pieces.
Burnley have changed from a flat 4-4-2 to an even more defensive 4-5-1 since striker Gray got banned for 4 games – meaning they are relying fully on set pieces (and deep crosses) for any sort of attacking threat. Having only scored 5 goals in 6 games this season, Arsenal’s defence shouldn’t feel too threatened, especially after successive clean sheets against stronger outfits Chelsea and FC Basel.
It’s the attacking side that will need to be grinded out – Burnley have only conceded 5 goals in 18 home games – you’d think that kind of record is only matched by teams such as Atletico Madrid. So how do you break down a flat 4-5-1? Likely to sit deep, the only thing Arsenal can do is stretch the game using two natural wingers and overlapping full backs – maybe a game for Gibbs to come in?
Looking specifically at the double pivot (now Xhaka and Cazorla), you would notice Cazorla moving up, almost playing alongside Ozil when Arsenal were in possession against a deep-lying Basel, almost making a 4-1-4-1 in attack, which helps against the likely outnumbering in defence. While Xhaka and the two centre halves hold, there are 8 Arsenal players up the pitch, and the sheer pressure from this volume of players leads to chances.
In terms of personnel, I’d be tempted to stick with what has been working, but I predict that a stalemate after 60 minutes will yield the introduction of the big French striker from the bench.
