So, there it is. Manuel Pellegrini out after what will be three reasonably successful years at Manchester City and Pep Guardiola replacing him. These two events have huge implications on the world of football, however, Arsenal should take particular notice to them, given their own situation.
The Citizens deeming Manuel Pellegrini surplus to requirements means that for the 13th time in the last five years, one of Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool or Tottenham will have changed managers. All the while Arsene Wenger stands resolute — the last bastion of continuity in the Premier League. Such is the desire for instantaneous glory, managerial cycles of three years or less are now normative for most clubs. This means that when the time comes, Wenger’s departure will leave Arsenal in unknown territory. The cocoon of continuity which the Frenchman’s administration have maintained throughout his reign has rendered them financially stable and challenging for honours, yet the biggest challenge facing the Gunners remains off the field: hiring a head coach for the first time in over 20 years in a managerial climate alien to the one last time they made such an appointment.
One positive for Arsenal is that they have a clear template of what not to do, provided by Manchester United. A managerial reign as long and successful as Sir Alex Ferguson’s was never going to be an easy act to follow, but the manner in which they bungled his succession was almost impressive. It should also suggest to those at Arsenal that handing such a baton to a manager at a smaller club is not a risk worth taking given the eventual circumstances. Handing the budget of a European super club to a promising and skilled manager of a smaller club is seemingly confirmation of the fact that money isn’t always everything; top flight and European credentials simply matter more. Arsenal must aim high when Wenger leaves: a manager with pedigree should be a necessity for the club, not a luxury. With a budget as large as the Gunners’ and a desire for fabled ‘marquee’ signings, the successor should be a household name across Europe.
This brings us to the second event of note in the past few days — the appointment of Guardiola. City’s appointment of Guardiola thins the field of potential pairs of safe hands which Arsenal could hand Wenger’s baton to. Of those most recently available and most perennially linked, Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp and Carlo Ancelotti will all be in a job if the Gunners’ boss does run down his contract. Of the remaining managers who can be considered of a suitable pedigree, one would look to the likes of Diego Simeone, Jose Mourinho and Manuel Pellegrini as the biggest and best names most likely to move. Simeone appears settled in Madrid, although interest from Chelsea could change that as well as destroy any hopes of obtaining him. Furthermore, Pellegrini may have wearied after his time at the Etihad and perhaps he seeks a quieter, lower octane job. As for Mourinho, unless United make the swoop then who would want someone so prominently poisonous after his latest series of calamities at the Blues? Obviously, nobody can know which candidates will emerge over the next 18 months, nor can we know who will be readily available but if 2017 will be the year when Wenger’s tenure ends then on current evidence the Arsenal executives will need to be contacting the top brass of football very soon if they wish to secure a name of the requisite quality.
The urgency for executive action segues into another potential issue in terms of those who will be making the decision itself. In 1996, then vice-Chairman of Arsenal, David Dein played an integral role in bringing Arsene Wenger to the club. He bought into the vision and philosophy and snapped up the Frenchman before anyone else had a sniff. 20 years later and the new face of Arsenal’s corporate contingent, Ivan Gazidis, has impressed with a number of huge commercial deals and statements of intent regarding transfers. With Sir Chips Keswick remaining virtually silent during his tenure as chairman and a seemingly invisible Stan Kroenke saying even less so, it should fall to Gazidis to appoint the new manager (although this is purely speculation, but a guess would suggest that Gazidis would be instrumental in the appointment process). Gazidis will be entering a scenario which he has never really confronted because while directorial personnel have changed, the management staff has remained almost unchanged. Arsenal’s admirable commitment to managerial consistency means that the new world of chopping and changing managers will not be one that the club are accustomed to, which will only add to the immense difficulties facing them when the current manager leaves.
At the time of writing, I am 20 years of age. Arsene Wenger is all I have ever known in terms of the manager of my club. To a fan as young as me, he effectively is Arsenal, having presided over the greatest moments I have witnessed as a football fan and ushering in generation after generation of mind-blowing talent. Obviously, this isn’t the case — he isn’t the be-all and end-all of the club. He is not flawless. No manager is. But like all great managers, he’ll leave a legacy, primarily in the form of enormous, Emirates Stadium-sized shoes to fill. We won’t even necessarily be worse off when he leaves — a change in manager may be exactly what invigorates the club further. But that’s conjecture for now. If the current Premier League season has taught us anything, it’s that predicting football is a fruitless task. What is indubitable, however, is that if the job is available in 2017, then you can forget the Premier League this season, or any domestic or European cup finals that may come Arsenal’s way, because replacing Le Professeur in the weeks and months leading up to the summer of 2017 will be the most challenging period in Arsenal’s modern history.
