The final spots for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League will be claimed this evening, so it’s time to start looking at the group stage draw, which will be held tomorrow from 17:45BST and will be streamed live through UEFA’s website. Until teams seize these final slots, much of what can possibly happen in the draw will still be up in the air. However, it’s not too early to look at some possible groups for Arsenal based on what we already know about the pots and the seeding process.
Let’s take a look at a couple of changes to the format of this year’s draw, and how that might affect Arsenal’s potential group mates.
The biggest change in format for the draw is that pot one is reserved for the champions of the top seven European leagues (plus the holders). For this year’s draw, since Barcelona won both the Champions League and La Liga, the eighth spot in pot one has gone to the winner of the Eredivisie, PSV Eindhoven. This has a significant effect on Arsenal, as they would have been placed in pot one under the old system (club coefficient). Instead, Arsenal will be in pot two.
This year marks the first year that the Europa League winner (Sevilla) gains automatic qualification into the group stage. Unless Manchester United lose a 3-1 advantage in the second leg of their playoff, Sevilla will go into pot thee for the draw. Given that, here’s what we know for sure about pot placements:
Pot 1 (champions):
FC Barcelona
FC Bayern München
Chelsea
SL Benfica
Paris Saint-Germain
Juventus
FC Zenit
PSV Eindhoven
Pot 2:
Arsenal FC
Club Atlético de Madrid
FC Porto
Manchester City FC
Real Madrid CF
Valencia CF
Pot 2 or 3:
Shakhtar Donetsk
Sevilla
Pot 3:
Olympic Lyonnais
Dynamo Kyiv
Olympiacos
Galatasaray
Roma
Pot 4:
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Wolfsburg
Dinamo Zagreb
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Gent
Malmö
Given such a configuration, Arsenal, despite being left out of pot one, could still end up with a very winnable group, as there are teams in pot one who would be considered significantly weaker than the Gunners. At the same time, given the quality of some of the teams in pots three and four, they could also end up in a very difficult group.
Remember also, that Arsenal cannot be placed with any other team from England in the group stage, so they will avoid Chelsea despite being in different pots and they will avoid Manchester City and Manchester United by virtue of being in the same pot (again, assuming Manchester United hold on to their advantage in the second leg of their playoff with Club Brugge).
Arsenal will face relatively unfamiliar territory in potentially sharing a group with the likes of Barcelona or Bayern Munich, while the pool of potentially difficult pot two teams they will avoid consists of the likes of Valencia, since they would have avoided either Manchester Club regardless of the new seeding procedures. All in all, the potential for an extremely difficult group for the Gunners increases significantly using the new seeding rules.
Again, a lot of possibilites are still in flux and dependent on the results of the playoff games this evening, but we have taken a look at the potential groups and listed both the best and worst possible draws for Arsenal, based on current UEFA coefficients.
Arsenal’s best possible group (by UEFA coefficient):
PSV Eindhoven
Arsenal
AS Roma
FC Astana (currently hold a 1-0 advantage over APOEL FC in their playoff)
Arsenal’s Worst Possible Group (by UEFA coefficient)
FC Barcelona
Arsenal
FC Shakhtar Donetsk
APOEL FC
These coefficients, as it is well known, change rather slowly, so readers may be reasonable in fearing (or desiring) teams despite their relative coefficients. One could make an argument, for example, that Arsenal fans might feel more comfortable with Donetsk in the group than, say, Sevilla, or that perhaps Wolfsburg (in pot four) is best avoided in the group stage over APOEL, despite the latter’s higher coefficient.
Fans, however, will have little time to obsess over potential group scenarios, as the draw for the actual groups will take place less than 24 hours after the final seeding has been determined.
